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	<title>Mactavish France</title>
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	<pubDate>Mon, 09 Jan 2012 15:48:49 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>Mactavish et PwC UK publient un rapport prônant une réforme des méthodes de placement des grands risques.</title>
		<link>http://mactavishgroup.com/france/mactavish-et-pwc-publient-un-rapport-pronant-une-reforme-des-methodes-de-placement-des-grands-risques/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Mar 2011 17:25:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Actualités]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mactavishgroup.com/france/?p=121</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><strong>Un rapport de Mactavish/PwC UK révèle de graves déficiences de gouvernance dans les entreprises britanniques et met en garde contre&#8230;</strong></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Un rapport de Mactavish/PwC UK révèle de graves déficiences de gouvernance dans les entreprises britanniques et met en garde contre des problèmes importants liés à leurs assurances.</strong></p>
<ul type="disc">
<li>Les assurances d&#8217;entreprise ne sont pas appropriées à l&#8217;environnement actuel      d&#8217;après-crise, et les contestations d&#8217;indemnisation de sinistres devraient      augmenter</li>
<li>De sérieuses failles dans la manière dont les polices d&#8217;assurances sont      mises en place rendent les entreprises vulnérables</li>
<li>Les besoins en assurances doivent devenir un élément plus important des processus de gestion des      risques et du capital des entreprises</li>
</ul>
<p>Les entreprises britanniques s&#8217;exposent à des pertes importantes et évitables en raison de graves failles dans la façon dont sont gérées leurs polices d&#8217;assurance. Une nouvelle étude sur les grands risques d&#8217;entreprise, menée par le cabinet de recherche Mactavish en association avec PwC UK, met en lumière des carences graves dans la manière dont sont gérées les assurances et dans le rôle qu&#8217;ont les Comités de direction dans la gouvernance de ces arrangements. Les sociétés sont ainsi vulnérables en cas de sinistre important non indemnisé par leurs assureurs.</p>
<p>Le rapport, basé sur des consultations avec plus de 600 entreprises britanniques, plus de 100 assureurs et courtiers et des analyses de cas détaillées, dresse un tableau alarmant de communication inadéquate des activités et des risques, d&#8217;ignorance généralisée du droit des assurances, d&#8217;incapacité des équipes de direction à recueillir les informations pertinentes pour la souscription, de polices d&#8217;assurance peu fiables, et d&#8217;une méconnaissance des processus de gestion des sinistres majeurs.</p>
<p>Bruce Hepburn, Président Directeur Général de Mactavish déclare :</p>
<p>« Les problématiques d&#8217;assurance révélées par ce rapport sont inquiétantes. Ce que nous observons aujourd&#8217;hui est un système qui a privilégié de faibles coûts de transactions aux dépens de la fiabilité des couvertures. Cette approche n&#8217;est pas adéquate pour le contexte économique dans lequel nous entrons. Les entreprises britanniques, en particulier les PME et ETI (Entreprises de Taille Intermédiaire), se mettent inutilement en danger et, dans l&#8217;environnement actuel, sont ainsi beaucoup plus exposées en cas de contentieux de sinistre. Les clients, courtiers et assureurs doivent tous commencer à investir suffisamment de temps afin d&#8217;assurer la fiabilité des couvertures d&#8217;assurance. »</p>
<p>Les résultats de Mactavish viennent à un moment où le rôle de l&#8217;assurance en tant que  filet de sécurité financier est particulièrement crucial. La récession a obligé de nombreuses sociétés à prendre plus de risques afin de protéger leur profitabilité et les Comités de direction subissent une pression croissante pour démontrer l&#8217;efficacité de leur gouvernance. Les catastrophes majeures, telles que les perturbations causées par le nuage de cendres du volcan islandais Eyjafjallajökull, peuvent arriver à tout moment, mais les difficultés financières récentes, le resserrement des conditions de crédit et la transformation des risques encourus, causée par la mondialisation et la récession, représentent des menaces nouvelles et peu comprises.</p>
<p>En parallèle, le rapport démontre que les assureurs sont beaucoup plus stricts sur l&#8217;indemnisation des sinistres. Il suggère que les réformes ne sont pas seulement urgentes mais tout à fait réalisables si les acheteurs, les courtiers et les assureurs travaillent ensemble pour améliorer la manière dont les risques  sont analysés, communiqués et souscrits, et optimiser la fiabilité des polices d&#8217;assurance.</p>
<p>PwC UK, partenaire de Mactavish dans la publication de cette recherche, considère ce rapport comme faisant partie intégrante du débat plus large sur la gouvernance d&#8217;entreprise et la « compliance » - où l&#8217;assurance est trop souvent ignorée.</p>
<p>Le rapport préconise sept recommandations (voir annexe I) visant à améliorer les pratiques existantes. Ces réformes ont d&#8217;ores et déjà été formellement approuvées par un grand nombre d&#8217;acteurs-clé du secteur (voir annexe 2).</p>
<p>Les faits marquants de la recherche démontrent que :</p>
<ul type="disc">
<li>87% des acheteurs d&#8217;assurance      ne comprennent ni le fait que le devoir de communication des risques à l&#8217;assureur      (« Duty of Disclosure ») repose sur leurs épaules, dans le contexte      juridique britannique, ni les conséquences de ne pas remplir cette obligation.</li>
<li>Les deux tiers des acheteurs      (65%) de grandes entreprises ne revoient pas les documents utilisés pour présenter      leurs risques aux assureurs et presque tous n&#8217;ont pas de discussion adéquate      avec leurs assureurs et leurs courtiers sur la validité de leurs couvertures      d&#8217;assurance.</li>
<li>Les professionnels de la gestion      de sinistre commencent à témoigner d&#8217;une augmentation du nombre de sinistres      causés par les changements opérationnels liés à la récession, venant      s&#8217;ajouter à un accroissement des réclamations disputées par les assureurs,      quelle que soit la branche d&#8217;assurance. Le nombre de contentieux commerciaux      rapportés par la Haute Cour de Justice britannique - The Royal Courts of Justice      - (excluant les cas de faillites), a augmenté de 45% entre 2008 et 2009 et      certaines catégories telles que les contentieux liés à des négligences professionnelles      ont accru de plus de 100%.</li>
<li>Les standards d&#8217;analyse et      de communication des risques sont le plus souvent considérés comme insuffisants,      si ce n&#8217;est consternant (cf. études de cas p.25-26 du rapport). Presque tous      les documents utilisés pour expliquer les risques des entreprises aux assureurs,      parmi les centaines revus dans le cadre de cette recherche, contenaient des      erreurs ou des omissions pouvant conduire à un refus d&#8217;indemnisation d&#8217;un sinistre      majeur. Ainsi, un industriel avait omis de transmettre à son assureur des informations      liées à l&#8217;utilisation finale de produits à risque, à des tests produits délicats      effectués pour le compte d&#8217;un tiers et à l&#8217;emploi de techniques de fabrication      très sensibles.</li>
<li>Le rapport met en lumière      de multiples exemples de communication défectueuse entre la fonction assurance      et les directions opérationnelles, de situations où les souscripteurs ont recours      à des informations non documentées pour l&#8217;analyse du risque ainsi qu&#8217;une insuffisance      de contacts entre les acheteurs et les assureurs.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>FIN</strong></p>
<p><strong>Notes pour l&#8217;éditeur :</strong></p>
<ul type="disc">
<li>Cette étude se base sur plus      de 600 consultations détaillées conduites en 2009-2010-2011 avec des directeurs      financiers, juridiques et opérationnels et  des responsables de la gestion des assurances.      Plus de 100 consultations ont été menées avec les équipes de direction des      principaux assureurs et courtiers établis au Royaume-Uni. Pour obtenir une      copie du rapport, merci de contacter Antoine Guérin aux coordonnées ci-dessous.</li>
<li>Mactavish est un cabinet de      recherche et de conseil spécialisé dans l&#8217;analyse des risques et les assurances      commerciales. Merci      de <a href="http://visiterwww.mactavishgroup.com/" target="_blank">visiter www.mactavishgroup.com</a> pour plus d&#8217;informations.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Contact Presse</strong></p>
<p>Antoine Guerin au +44 (0)207 793 4039 (portable : +44 (0)7879 827 434) ou par email : <a href="mailto:antoineguerin@mactavishgroup.com" target="_blank">antoineguerin@mactavishgroup.com</a></p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">ANNEXE I</span></strong></p>
<p>Les sept recommandations de Mactavish préconisent les réformes suivantes:</p>
<ol type="1">
<li>Rendre les acheteurs d&#8217;assurance conscients de leurs      obligations juridiques et des principales différences entre le droit des assurances      et le droit contractuel</li>
<li>Une remise en question des méthodes d&#8217;évaluation des      risques et une amélioration marquée de la manière dont l&#8217;information est recueillie,      validée et communiquée</li>
<li>Un processus d&#8217;appel d&#8217;offres en deux temps afin d&#8217;accentuer      le dialogue entre acheteurs et assureurs tout en maintenant l&#8217;efficacité des      transactions</li>
<li>Une opportunité pour l&#8217;assureur de présenter directement      à l&#8217;acheteur sa compréhension des risques de l&#8217;entreprise et les détails des      couvertures proposées</li>
<li>Une analyse par les clients de la matérialité financière      du capital d&#8217;assurance dans la structure financière de l&#8217;entreprise</li>
<li>Une discussion entre l&#8217;assureur et le client, avant      l&#8217;entrée en vigueur de la garantie, de certains scénarios de sinistre majeur,      afin que l&#8217;acheteur comprenne comment les polices d&#8217;assurance s&#8217;appliquent      concrètement à l&#8217;activité de l&#8217;entreprise</li>
<li>L&#8217;explication détaillée par l&#8217;assureur, et préalable      au renouvellement, des procédures de gestion de sinistres afin d&#8217;éviter toute      incertitude quant à la marche à suivre en cas de sinistre majeur.</li>
</ol>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">ANNEXE II</span></strong></p>
<p>De nombreux acteurs-clé du secteur soutiennent déjà les recommandations et les conclusions de Mactavish.</p>
<p>Emmanuel Nivet, PDG, Axa Corporate Solutions UK, déclare :</p>
<p>« Par son impartialité et sa vision internationale,  le &#8220;Placing Reform Report&#8221; de Mactavish est un document pragmatique et précurseur pour notre industrie.</p>
<p>AXA Corporate Solutions soutient les résultats de ce rapport à l&#8217;image de sa propre démarche de long terme : clients, courtiers et assureurs se doivent de collaborer de façon encore plus transparente.</p>
<p>Nous sommes persuadés de la pertinence de ce rapport comme en témoignent nos propres Engagements Clients et Courtiers basés sur les résultats de Mactavish, tels que la relecture partagée du wording d&#8217;un contrat. »</p>
<p>John Hurrell, Président de l&#8217;AIRMIC (Association des Risk Managers du Royaume-Uni <em>- </em>équivalent britannique de l&#8217;AMRAE), déclare :</p>
<p>&#8220;Mactavish&#8217;s research is thorough and convincing, and it lifts the lid on a potential crisis looming in the UK commercial insurance market. Airmic has long argued that the current legal framework for commercial insurance contracts is unsustainable. This research illustrates just how dangerous the situation can be.&#8221;</p>
<p>L&#8217;ensemble des témoignages d&#8217;assureurs, courtiers, cabinets d&#8217;avocat et de conseil, sont disponibles sur notre site internet : <a href="http://mactavishgroup.com/united-kingdom/insurance-broking-industry-responses-to-the-mactavish-protocols/">http://mactavishgroup.com/united-kingdom/insurance-broking-industry-responses-to-the-mactavish-protocols/</a></p>
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		<title>Pleural Plaques decision expected soon</title>
		<link>http://mactavishgroup.com/france/pleural-plaques-decision-expected-soon/</link>
		<comments>http://mactavishgroup.com/france/pleural-plaques-decision-expected-soon/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Feb 2010 17:16:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mactavishgroup.com/france/?p=117</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The House of Lords is today debating a bill that could restore the right to compensation for sufferers of pleural&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The House of Lords is today debating a bill that could restore the right to compensation for sufferers of pleural plaques - a normally benign scarring of the lungs that can, in some cases, lead to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesothelioma">Mesothelioma</a>.<br />
</br><br />
<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&amp;sid=apX.Nki2LhYk">Bloomberg</a> reports that a change in the law to allow pleural plaques claims could cost insurers up to 28.6 billion pounds, though a report by the <a href="http://www.justice.gov.uk/news/newsrelease090708a.htm">Ministry of Justice</a> released in 2008 estimated costs could be as low as 3.7 billion pounds. The uncertainty around the possible impact of the law change reflects the fact nobody knows how many of these claims will eventually materialise.<br />
</br><br />
Two Ratings Agencies - Fitch &amp; A.M. Best - think that a right to bring claims may force insurers to increase their reserves. Several insurers have already come out publicly and announced that Asbestos reserves have been boosted by several hundred million pounds to take account of the possible law change. In reality, as Catherine Thomas, Senior Insurance Analyst at A.M. Best <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-02-04/aviva-zurich-may-face-spiral-of-new-asbestos-claims-in-u-k-.html">states</a>: &#8220;The estimation and provision of asbestos reserves is subject to much greater uncertainty than other classes of insurance.&#8221;<br />
</br><br />
The Actuarial Profession&#8217;s <a href="http://www.actuaries.org.uk/media_centre/press_releases/pr-rels/2010/asbestos_report">UK Asbestos Working Party</a> has recently upped its estimate of the future cost of UK Asbestos-related claims to the insurance industry. A change in the law by the House of Lords to allow compensation for sufferers of Pleural Plaques might mean the Working Party&#8217;s actuaries having to return to their spreadsheets for a second time to adjust their projections.</p>
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		<title>Building Societies finding it hard to weather the downturn</title>
		<link>http://mactavishgroup.com/france/building-societies-finding-it-hard-to-weather-the-downturn/</link>
		<comments>http://mactavishgroup.com/france/building-societies-finding-it-hard-to-weather-the-downturn/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 17:16:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
		
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mactavishgroup.com/france/?p=116</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The credit crunch hasn’t been kind to Britain’s Mutual sector. Consolidation – a polite euphemism for bailouts in many cases&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The credit crunch hasn’t been kind to Britain’s Mutual sector. Consolidation – a polite euphemism for bailouts in many cases – has been widespread, with the Derbyshire, Cheshire, Barnsley, Catholic and Dunfermline and Chelsea Societies all being swallowed up by larger rivals. Ratings agency <a href="http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/savings-and-banking/article.html?in_article_id=482598&amp;in_page_id=7">downgrades</a> have beset many Mutuals and <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/aug/21/chelsea-41m-mortgage-fraud">fraud losses</a> have been widely reported. But the full extent of the financial crisis on Building Societies has today been laid bare by the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/7130790/Building-societes-hit-by-record-cash-crisis.html">Building Societies Association</a> (BSA)<br />
</b><br />
A total of over £32 billion has been withdrawn from Society’s coffers, the result of Local Authorities taking their deposits elsewhere, savers deserting the sector because of the low interest rate environment and access to the wholesale money markets freezing up.<br />
</br><br />
This arctic breeze of developments has severely impacted the mortgage market in the UK. The <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/7130790/Building-societes-hit-by-record-cash-crisis.html">Council of Mortgage Lenders</a> have announced that net funding was just £11.5 billion last year, the lowest level recorded since 1987 (when records began) and down from some £111 billion in 2006. These are astonishing figures that prove just how challenged Britain&#8217;s Mutual sector is.<br />
</br><br />
There has been a raft of recent developments that have affected Britain&#8217;s 52 Building Societies: from ratings agency downgrades, to increased regulatory oversight to a marked increase in competition for retail deposits from the nationalised banks. Understanding how these have affected business operations (and consequently risk exposures) must now be a key priority for risk managers and insurance buyers alike.</p>
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		<title>Operational changes driving higher recalls of cars?</title>
		<link>http://mactavishgroup.com/france/operational-changes-driving-higher-recalls-of-cars/</link>
		<comments>http://mactavishgroup.com/france/operational-changes-driving-higher-recalls-of-cars/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Feb 2010 17:15:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mactavishgroup.com/france/?p=115</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>A recent <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8484498.stm">spate</a> of <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8487475.stm">product recalls</a> involving carmakers has hit the beleaguered global automotive industry. Although it could be a misperception on&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A recent <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8484498.stm">spate</a> of <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8487475.stm">product recalls</a> involving carmakers has hit the beleaguered global automotive industry. Although it could be a misperception on my part, there does seem to be an increasing number of product recalls nowadays - and not just cars. Perhaps this is a function of our increasingly globalised economy? As the recent Mactavish Research Study highlighted, supply chains are more interconnected now than they have ever been, changing and concentrating risk.<br />
</b><br />
The most interesting aspect of the recall involving Toyota is that <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8489079.stm">Peugeot Citroen</a>, Europe&#8217;s second-biggest carmaker, has been forced to recall specific models that were manufactured in the same factory in the Czech Republic as the faulty Toyotas. This plant is a joint venture between the two companies and churns out models of cars that are very similar and often share components.<br />
</b><br />
Reading this caused our CEO to pull out from his cupboard a dusty, mothballed report Mactavish wrote on the automotive industry some ten years ago. In it, we majored on the emerging trend towards common platforms as a key efficiency driver. Car manufacturers even then were beginning to use the same components for many different makes of car, sourced from the same suppliers.  Although this drove down costs, it also increased the severity and cost of any damaging product recall. Now, when a component breaks down, it can lead to the recall of multiple brands of cars - and can hit more than one company (e.g. Toyota &amp; Peugeot Citroen).<br />
</b><br />
This is a classic case of seemingly innocuous operational changes having profound and not always obvious implications for risk management.  Businesses will always change operations: after all, innovation is often the key to growth. But if change is pervasive, it must be communicated internally within the business and externally to shareholders and other capital providers, like lenders and insurers.</p>
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		<title>Cyber security: a big risk management challenge for 2010</title>
		<link>http://mactavishgroup.com/france/cyber-security-a-big-risk-management-challenge-for-2010/</link>
		<comments>http://mactavishgroup.com/france/cyber-security-a-big-risk-management-challenge-for-2010/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jan 2010 17:14:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mactavishgroup.com/france/?p=114</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>After weeks of fevered speculation and hype Apple yesterday unveiled its latest piece of hi-tech wizardry: the <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2010/jan/28/apple-ipad-mobile-phones">iPad</a>. Despite seeming&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After weeks of fevered speculation and hype Apple yesterday unveiled its latest piece of hi-tech wizardry: the <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2010/jan/28/apple-ipad-mobile-phones">iPad</a>. Despite seeming to be just a large version of the now-ubiquitous iPhone, it will no doubt become the new must-have gadget for the masses. Technological advances like those conducted by Apple are now so commonplace that we risk overlooking how connectivity is changing the way we work. More dangerously, from an insurance standpoint, we often also neglect to truly think through the risks associated with new computing products and ways of working.<br />
</br><br />
A new <a href="http://searchsecurity.techtarget.com/tip/0,289483,sid14_gci1379429,00.html">article</a> by Searchsecurity.com argues that <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing">cloud computing</a> is one of the main risk management challenges facing businesses in 2010. A move to cloud computing will present huge compliance challenges, as more and more data and applications are moved beyond existing network infrastructures. The FSA is particularly attuned to the risk of data breaches and have fined <a href="http://news.zdnet.co.uk/security/0,1000000189,39692506,00.htm">several banks</a> and building societies for losing sensitive pieces of customer information.<br />
</br><br />
Cyber-crime and non-material triggers of Business Interruption are two areas that cropped up as key concerns of insurance buyers in the Mactavish 2010 cross-sector risk research programme. One Head of Internal Audit at a large Financial Services firm told me just last week that her insurance company had failed to provide enough cover for cyber-liabilities: <em>&#8220;we have a very </em><em>traditional property policy and my insurers have been slow on the uptake when it comes to liabilities in this area&#8221;</em><br />
</br><br />
As the world becomes more interconnected and more data is stored in cyber-space it will become critical for companies to ensure they have adequate insurance policies in place to cover the risk of losses from cyber-liabilities. Apple will continue to launch new products to innovate its way to growth, almost re-defining its own product segments. Perhaps it is time for insurers to take a similar tack?</p>
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		<title>The economic recovery starts here. Or does it?</title>
		<link>http://mactavishgroup.com/france/the-economic-recovery-starts-here-or-does-it/</link>
		<comments>http://mactavishgroup.com/france/the-economic-recovery-starts-here-or-does-it/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Jan 2010 17:14:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
		
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mactavishgroup.com/france/?p=113</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>So, Britain has staggered, bloodied and bruised, out of recession with &#8220;growth&#8221; of <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8478419.stm">0.1%</a> in the last quarter of 2009. Let&#8217;s&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So, Britain has staggered, bloodied and bruised, out of recession with &#8220;growth&#8221; of <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8478419.stm">0.1%</a> in the last quarter of 2009. Let&#8217;s pop open the Champagne. On second thoughts, we better make that a bottle of Lambrini.<br />
</br><br />
While the bods at the Office of National Statistics and the often optimistic economists in the City are right in stressing the technical end of recession, it feels like any recovery might be precariously short-lived. Figures released by the <a href="http://www.cbi.org.uk/ndbs/press.nsf/0363c1f07c6ca12a8025671c00381cc7/72c5d7d8cfa9d3ca802576b6003dbcdd?OpenDocument">CBI</a> today show that retail sales in January fell year-on-year, ending three consecutive months of sales growth.<br />
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<a href="http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/retailing/article7004392.ece">Commentators</a> are blaming the deep freeze, though the return of the VAT rate to 17.5% must bear at least some brunt of the blame. Other economic indicators are just as bad. The pound is down by around <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jan/26/economic-growth-uk-recession">20%</a> compared with the period before the economy fell off the cliff, but exports are clearly not leading us back to growth.<br />
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Political <a href="http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100023801/will-the-election-be-on-april-22/">speculation</a> is rife that Labour is paving the way for a General Election on April 22. This is the last conceivable date the election could be held before the next round of GDP figures are released. Bookmakers rarely get these things wrong - and the money does seems to be down for a <a href="http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/next-uk-general-election/month-of-next-election">May poll</a>. But Ministers and economists are clearly worried about a double-dip recession. With tax rises inevitable and further job cuts on the horizon, it might pay for the Labour vanguard to set the date in April. After all, the economic news is only going to get worse.<br />
</br><br />
Now, where&#8217;s that spare fiver? I want to take advantage of the 12/1 for an April poll. Who cares if it&#8217;s a high-risk bet? More chance of me winning than the economy sprinting out of the blocks towards recovery.</p>
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		<title>‘Connecting the dots’: what Gladwell, the Yom Kippur war &#038; 9/11 can teach us about insurance</title>
		<link>http://mactavishgroup.com/france/%e2%80%98connecting-the-dots%e2%80%99-what-gladwell-the-yom-kippur-war-911-can-teach-us-about-insurance/</link>
		<comments>http://mactavishgroup.com/france/%e2%80%98connecting-the-dots%e2%80%99-what-gladwell-the-yom-kippur-war-911-can-teach-us-about-insurance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Jan 2010 17:13:54 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mactavishgroup.com/france/?p=112</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yom_Kippur_War">Yom Kippur</a> war, 9/11, the <a href="http://library.thinkquest.org/11046/days/bay_of_pigs.html">Bay of Pigs</a> fiasco and <a href="http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/RUSbarbarossa.htm">Operation Barbarossa</a> all, at first glance, seem to have little connection to&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yom_Kippur_War">Yom Kippur</a> war, 9/11, the <a href="http://library.thinkquest.org/11046/days/bay_of_pigs.html">Bay of Pigs</a> fiasco and <a href="http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/RUSbarbarossa.htm">Operation Barbarossa</a> all, at first glance, seem to have little connection to the world of insurance. But after reading an old <a href="http://www.gladwell.com/2003/2003_03_10_a_dots.html">New Yorker article</a> by Tipping-Point author Malcolm Gladwell, I think companies can learn a lot from these seemingly random events and the intelligence failures associated with all of them.<br />
</br><br />
Gladwell bases his fantastic article on the psychological trait known as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias">Hindsight Bias</a>. This is when humans show the propensity to conclude, post-hoc, that events were more predictable than they actually were. After the coordinated attack on Israel by Egypt &amp; Syria in 1973, many were quick to blame failures in intelligence gathering for not anticipating the attack. AMAN, the Israeli Military Intelligence unit, apparently had ample evidence of Egyptian troops taking up positions along the Suez Canal but failed to ‘join the dots&#8217; with other pieces of intelligence. The attack caught the Israeli Government and public by complete surprise.<br />
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This failure of intelligence has also been a charge applied to 9/11, the Bay of Pigs and Operation Barbarossa. In all three cases, there were sufficient individual pieces of data to point to attacks. But Gladwell argues it would be a mistake to instantly rush to condemn the Intelligence Services for negligence over 9/11 and other acts of war. He believes that critics often suffer from Hindsight Bias, looking back on events and concluding they were eminently predictable.<br />
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What does this have to do with commercial insurance? Well, when low-frequency / high-severity risks occur, such as an explosion at a manufacturing plant, companies will have often had the knowledge within their organisations to have foreseen the possibility of this catastrophic event. After all, this is why insurance is purchased. The key question here is did the operational managers within the business share their intelligence with the staff tasked with putting the right insurances in place?<br />
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Failure to gather intelligence at all about risks is not a charge Mactavish would level at many companies. But failure to share intelligence about risks internally &#038; externally often is. We have conducted Due Diligence on complex risks for over ten years and have come across many examples of risks that were not even on the radar of the Board, let alone on the formal risk register. Operational staff in the business units were, however, usually aware of these risks and the controls in place to mitigate them.<br />
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I think Gladwell might accuse Mactavish of Hindsight Bias here, but I would swat aside his argument. ‘<a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0141034599/ref=pd_lpo_k2_dp_sr_1?pf_rd_p=471057153&amp;pf_rd_s=lpo-top-stripe&amp;pf_rd_t=201&amp;pf_rd_i=0713999950&amp;pf_rd_m=A3P5ROKL5A1OLE&amp;pf_rd_r=1WVF3SQH6BN5V03PFK46">Black Swan</a>&#8216; type events will always occur.  Also, any given company surprise is most likely to strike where management haven&#8217;t had direct prior experience of a particular type of loss. Businesses should use this very fact as a starting point for shining a brighter light on their operations, sharing information about risks and disclosing this with insurers. That way, if a catastrophic loss does hit your firm, you&#8217;ll be much better placed to resolve any uncertainties and get on with the business of recovering. Perhaps a little Hindsight Bias isn&#8217;t so bad when it comes to risk management?</p>
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		<title>Increase in UK manufacturing firms facing administration</title>
		<link>http://mactavishgroup.com/france/increase-in-uk-manufacturing-firms-facing-administration/</link>
		<comments>http://mactavishgroup.com/france/increase-in-uk-manufacturing-firms-facing-administration/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Jan 2010 17:13:30 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mactavishgroup.com/france/?p=111</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>2009 saw a 12% yearly increase in the number of UK manufacturing firms entering into administration, according to new figures&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>2009 saw a 12% yearly increase in the number of UK manufacturing firms entering into administration, according to new figures released by <a href="http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_GB/uk/industries/manufacturing/publications/press-release/2aa13177a8056210VgnVCM100000ba42f00aRCRD.htm">Deloitte</a>. The manufacturing sector represented 17% of all administrations last year, coming second only to construction which comprised 20% of the total.<br />
</br><br />
Although things got better as the year wore on, with numbers of administrations in Q4 down on the previous quarter, the manufacturing recovery is thought to be uncertain. Ross James, manufacturing partner at Deloitte thinks the outcome may still be <a href="http://www.themanufacturer.com/uk/content/10066/Sector_administrations_up">fairly bleak</a>: &#8220;At this stage it is difficult to predict whether the total number of manufacturing administrations will increase in 2010,&#8221; he said. &#8220;Primarily it centres on whether there is a sustained recovery in demand.&#8221;<br />
</br><br />
Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, believes a <a href="http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=491079&amp;in_page_id=2">weaker pound</a> will boost net exports and enable the British economy to rebalance away from the obvious reliance on Financial Services.  In theory this is all well and good, but it is not yet being borne out in practice. Data released last week shows that the falling pound is having <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jan/14/uk-manufacturing-production-flat">little effect</a>, as November&#8217;s manufacturing output stagnated for the second successive month.<br />
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The withdrawal of the Government&#8217;s fiscal stimulus and widely anticipated budget cuts could nip the nascent recovery in the bud. Total corporate UK insolvencies through to the end of 2009 have already <a href="http://press.experian.com/documents/showdoc.cfm">matched</a> the full recessionary cycle of the early 1990&#8217;s, with more expected.<br />
</br><br />
Insolvencies are bad for staff and owners of the businesses caught up in administration, but they also have knock-on effects in the supply chain. The 2010 Mactavish cross-sector risk research showed that withdrawal of credit insurance is a major concern of companies in the manufacturing, retail and construction sectors.<br />
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With more insolvency looming on the landscape the issue of suppliers going to the wall is only going to become more acute.</p>
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		<title>Standard Life fined by Regulator for a ‘Misleading Fund’</title>
		<link>http://mactavishgroup.com/france/standard-life-fined-by-regulator-for-a-%e2%80%98misleading-fund%e2%80%99/</link>
		<comments>http://mactavishgroup.com/france/standard-life-fined-by-regulator-for-a-%e2%80%98misleading-fund%e2%80%99/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Jan 2010 17:12:31 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mactavishgroup.com/france/?p=110</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Standard Life has been fined <a href="http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article6994894.ece">£2.45 million</a> by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) for inappropriately targeting a pension fund product at&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Standard Life has been fined <a href="http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article6994894.ece">£2.45 million</a> by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) for inappropriately targeting a pension fund product at thousands of investors. Today’s ruling found there were “<a href="http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pages/Library/Communication/PR/2010/010.shtml">serious systems and controls failings</a>” at the insurer, resulting in the production of misleading marketing materials for its Pension Sterling Fund.<br />
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98,000 retail consumers invested in the fund as of December 2008, some of whom were no doubt enticed by the insurer’s marketing stating the fund was 100 per cent invested in cash. Instead, the fund invested in more arcane financial instruments called floating rate notes.<br />
</br><br />
Standard Life has apologised to its investors and vowed to learn harsh lessons from its acknowledged mistakes: “We have learned important lessons from this mistake and have made significant improvements to our marketing literature processes to prevent the same thing happening again.”<br />
</br><br />
This is the first fine imposed by the FSA in 2010, but it seems likely it will be the first of many. FSA Director of Enforcement &amp; Financial Crime, Margaret Cole, <a href="http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pages/Library/Communication/PR/2010/010.shtml">said</a>: &#8220;The FSA takes the issue of misleading financial promotions very seriously and the fine announced today demonstrates our commitment to the principle of credible deterrence.”<br />
</br><br />
So, along with the numerous claims and notifications in the insurance market relating to mis-selling investment products, you have a more avowedly-interventionist regulator. If I were an insurance buyer in an Investment Management firm today, I would make sure a meeting with my compliance team was set up post-haste. Understanding controls around the suitability of investment prospectuses is vital. Explaining these controls to contingent capital providers like insurers will become even more so in the current climate.</p>
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		<title>Corporate Insolvencies Set to Rise</title>
		<link>http://mactavishgroup.com/france/corporate-insolvencies-set-to-rise/</link>
		<comments>http://mactavishgroup.com/france/corporate-insolvencies-set-to-rise/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Jan 2010 17:11:52 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mactavishgroup.com/france/?p=109</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Bill Shankly once said that football is not a matter of life or death, it&#8217;s more important than that. These&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bill Shankly once said that football is not a matter of life or death, it&#8217;s more important than that. These words should strike a particular chord with fans of Portsmouth, Notts County and Cardiff City football clubs today as all face asset seizures or winding-up orders after failing to defer payment of tax bills sent by Her Majesty&#8217;s Revenue &amp; Customs&#8217; (HMRC).<br />
</br><br />
But this is not just a problem exclusive to overstretched football clubs. Football imitates business life - and a <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jan/18/uk-businesses-critical-insolvency">report</a> released yesterday states that the end of the HMRC Time-To-Pay Scheme will lead to a significant rise in company failures from the third quarter of 2010 onwards.<br />
</br><br />
The scheme, which allows cash-strapped firms to defer tax payments, has so far helped 250,000 companies defer tax payments totalling some £4.3 billion. But evidence in today&#8217;s <a href="http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/management/article6992838.ece">Times</a> suggests that HMRC is making it harder for firms to access the scheme. As the tax deadline of 31 January looms there is a real possibility that firms might miss out on access to the scheme - and could be forced to sell assets to pay tax debts.<br />
</br><br />
Corporate Insolvency specialist <a href="http://www.begbies-traynorgroup.com/begbies-traynor/news/10-01-18/over_140_000_companies_show_real_signs_of_financial_distress_in_q4_2009.aspx">Begbies Traynor</a> believes that although the fiscal stimulus, VAT reduction and Car Scrappage Scheme have all helped businesses, in the longer-term repayment of debts is going to catch up with struggling firms. Executive Chairman of the Group, Ric Traynor states: &#8220;Experience of the last four recessions tells us that unemployment levels and corporate and personal insolvencies have lagged behind technical recession by 1 to 2 years.  With tax and interest rates certain to rise, as well as increasing pressure on consumer spending, there is every reason to suggest that the insolvency peaks of this recession remain some way off.&#8221;<br />
</br><br />
If this is true, it might be more than just a few football clubs going to the wall in 2010.</p>
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